Since January of this year, the price increase is becoming a major tone in the electronic components market, and the PCB board as a component connection carrier has also continued to rise in price. However, along with the "wind" that restricts environmental protection, PCB companies in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are facing new problems.
From the limit of Jiangsu Kunshan at the end of 2017 to Zhuhai and Shanghai, and to Shenzhen now, the entire PCB industry will usher in a new situation after this wave of price increases, and many PCB manufacturers will follow suit. "Wind" dispersed.
It is reported that the overall price increase of this wave of PCB is in the range of 20-30%. At the same time, the limited number of PCB factories in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta have to accelerate the transfer to the inland areas (Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Chongqing, etc.). , Many old or non-compliant PCB production capacity will gradually be eliminated.
For the new market for the PCB industry, the famous brand of circuit board, "Jidoo State," said that this is exactly the industry's "big fight", raw material prices, supply and demand are not equal, technology upgrades, production capacity, environmental protection A new model for the issue of component price increases brought about by such factors as restrictions.
Rising prices can be traced back to 2016, analyzing the major causes of PCB consumption
In the face of industry environmental restrictions and the impact of new environmental taxes, for the PCB industry, on the one hand, the production capacity of PCB companies in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta will be reduced, and supply and demand imbalances will lead to price increases; on the other hand, PCB The tax burden on the factory is even heavier and the price increase is justified.
According to industry insiders, PCB board price increase can be said to be a kind of price transmission, because raw materials such as upstream copper foil and glass fiber continue to rise in price; another reason is that in 2016, the lithium battery industry broke out and eaten a lot of copper foil production capacity. The price of raw materials rose by more than 100% in 2016 and fell back in early 2017, and then began to focus on price increases.
Among them, the copper foil is deposited on the substrate layer of the circuit board as the conductor of the PCB. In the PCB manufacturing cost, the copper-clad laminate occupies about 37% of the PCB cost. It is reported that from the beginning of 2016, the supply of electronic copper foil has been in short supply. This phenomenon has intensified, and there has been no fundamental improvement in the peak in the fourth quarter of 2016, which has pushed up the price of PCB in 2016.
The rise in PCB prices in 2017 is more of a demand-led growth. In July 2017, the PCB industry began to change from a light season to a high season, starting several times in July. Among them, the major increase in orders for domestic smart phone manufacturers is the main driver of demand.
Large increase in mobile phone orders can also cause problems. Because mobile phone customers place orders on a large scale, when the first and second-tier PCB manufacturers have insufficient capacity after receiving orders, they will send low-end orders to the third and fourth-wire boards. After the third and fourth wire boards receive orders, they begin to do Relatively high-end products, their original low-end orders have also been issued to the five-and-six-wire factory.
If there is no output for a certain number of companies outsourcing and environmental protection, there will be a great impact on the entire industry, because the entire industry chain is interlocking. In addition, after the tight production capacity, the delivery cycle has multiplied, resulting in more panic orders.
In addition, driven by the mining machine in 2017, the PCB production capacity consumed is also very large, and many of the major manufacturers' PCB production capacity has been eaten by miners. The mineral mining industry driven by Bitcoin soared in 2017, and the direct consumption of PCB production capacity was unexpected.
Kunshan's limit emissions swept to Shanghai and Shenzhen, environmental tax increases PCB plant operating costs
On December 24, 2017, Kunshan City issued an emergency notice of a complete shutdown and requested the 270 companies within the city to stop production completely. When the news came out, it caused an uproar in the industry, and in particular caused a rebound in Kunshan Taiwanese manufacturers. Two days later, Kunshan City announced once again that the previous notice of suspension was not implemented. The next step required a “restricted emission schedule”.
According to industry sources, Kunshan City has not implemented a complete shutdown, and it only requires that it be rectified because the Kunshan Taiwanese Businessmen Association has held consultations with the Kunshan municipal government. If across the board, many companies in the industrial chain will die, coupled with the fear that workers will become unemployed. Of the companies that requested production suspension, Taiwanese manufacturers accounted for nearly half of the total, and PCB factories are the hardest-hit areas for rectification because of heavy pollution.
According to industry insiders, the requirement for PCB factories to increase environmental protection is an inevitable trend in the industry. At present, the environmental standards for PCB manufacturers are divided into green cards and blue cards. These two are relatively high environmental standards and there is no green card or blue card. Manufacturers will certainly be investigated and need to be rectified.
Industry insiders further stated that at present, it is first to rectify the environmental protection limit of PCB companies in East China, and it is only a matter of time for PCB factory reorganization in South China. The PCB industry may not be able to rectify all of a sudden, otherwise it will have a great impact on the entire industry chain.
The same is true. Zhuhai also issued a limit notice after it was restricted in Kunshan. Subsequently, Shanghai also began to limit the reorganization, and spread to Shenzhen, represented by the Pearl River Delta.
On January 5th, Shanghai issued the “List of Key Effluent Units in Shanghai in 2018”, which carried out the screening and investigation of the water environment, atmospheric environment, soil environment, acoustic environment, and other five key pollutant discharge units.
According to industry sources, since the beginning of 2018, all major industrial areas in Shenzhen Baoan have also been investigated by the environmental protection department. Industrial areas often cut off water and electricity, and were forced to stop production.
The staff of PCB industry associations also confirmed that PCB manufacturers in major industrial areas in Baoan, Shenzhen, have already gone through investigations and rectification is not necessary.
So what pollution does PCB factory have? Because PCB board designs require electroplating, etching, and developing techniques, and many processes use chemical potions, this leads to heavy pollution.
In addition to the Kunshan event, there is a big move for the PCB industry, which is the environmental tax. Since January 1, 2018, the “Environmental Protection Tax” has been implemented, and the PCB factory will increase taxes according to the specific conditions of its sewage and exhaust gas. The wastewater and waste gas discharge costs will increase 3-5 times or even more. For PCB manufacturers, the operating costs are undoubtedly increased.
Overall price increase of 20-30%, new production capacity released in March-June this year
Based on these multiple factors, what is the price increase in the PCB market today? It is reported that from July 2017 when the market turns to the peak season, the increase is about 5%, with multiple rounds of adjustment, the current overall PCB price increase range of 20-30%.
In the largest mobile phone market for PCB board applications, the iPhone, Huawei, OV, and Bailifeng mobile phones have different requirements for the PCB board, and the corresponding prices are very different, and the increase is not the same. At present, the price of each PCB of the functional machine is more than 1 yuan (including tax), the price of the low-end smart PCB is between 3-5 yuan, the price of the mid-end PCB is between 5-10 yuan, and the high-end smart machine PCB Boards range from 10 to 20 yuan, and higher-end PCBs will cost more than 20 yuan. The difference is still significant.
It is understood that the iPhone8's PCB is 12-layer through, the cost is higher than 20 yuan; Oppo/Vivo and other mid-end PCB in the 10th and 2nd order, the price is about 12 yuan; Bailifeng and other low-end wisdom machine is used 4 or 8-layer board, the cost is about 6 yuan.
Through the mobile phone PCB price, we can see that the cost price of the entire PCB product is not high, but is driven by many factors, the overall increase of PCB board by 20-30%, which seems reasonable in the industry, and some PCB factories The price increase is only 10% and does not rule out malicious competition for robbing singles. It is no exaggeration to say that the current PCB market is very confusing and the current price and delivery cycle are not uniform.
As the PCB production capacity was tighter in the fourth quarter of 2017, the delivery cycle was once extended to 90 days. This caused many panic orders. Many planners placed orders for three months in advance, but now they encountered terminal manufacturers. Cutting the bills caused the market to be relatively chaotic.
Facts have proved that many terminal manufacturers began to cut orders in the first quarter of 2018, which is also the traditional low season of the PCB market. Many industry chain companies will die because of this wave of PCB market, and now many manufacturers do not mention the products can not be moved, the downstream manufacturers do not take delivery or inform slowly, in fact, is not single.
More importantly, in the first half of 2018, there will be a lot of new PCB plant capacity release for expansion, which will have a huge impact on the PCB market after the price increase. The new production capacity will be gradually put into operation from March to June this year. The new production capacity is doubled on the original basis. If the production capacity of Kunshan is not stopped, the PCB price will start to decline after March of this year. , coupled with the impact of environmental protection, will lead to the original many non-profit making companies gradually collapsed.
Behind the industrial migration, domestic PCB companies will usher in a golden period of development
As a whole, due to environmental protection restrictions and policies and raw material price increases and other multiple factors, after the release of new capacity in 2018, the entire PCB industry will usher in major changes, the production capacity of small and medium-sized PCB factories or eliminated or acquired. PCB manufacturers will further increase their market concentration.
In the new production capacity this year, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta are not the main force for the expansion of PCB manufacturers. Constrained by the impact of environmental protection restrictions, PCB manufacturers' expansion has long been transferred to central regions such as Jiangxi, Hubei, and Chongqing. These regional governments will also provide policy support, unlike the development status of the Pearl River Delta and other regions. Contaminated manufacturing companies), the entire PCB market will usher in industrial migration.
Industry transfer is indeed the status quo of the PCB industry. On the one hand, cities such as Kunshan and Shenzhen are really catching up with these PCB companies; on the other hand, regions such as Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, and Chongqing are indeed “leading” PCB companies. Support economic development.
According to industry data, the global PCB output value is about 60 billion U.S. dollars in 2016. It is estimated that the global PCB output value will reach 70 billion U.S. dollars in the next few years. Coupled with the support of the local manufacturing industry, Chinese PCB manufacturers will gradually seize market share and usher in gold development. period. In the future, 70% of the world's PCB output value will come from China. The current timing is the best opportunity for the domestic PCB industry to develop.
The PCB industry is now the golden period for the development of Chinese companies. There will be more and more investment, and the competition will be more intense. With the impact of environmental protection restrictions, the concentration of domestic PCB industry will gradually increase after the transfer. In addition, industrial mergers and acquisitions are unavoidable. After small-scale manufacturers are difficult to maintain, closures or mergers and acquisitions will become the norm.
For the development trend of the domestic PCB industry this year, well-known PCB playing sample cards "Jidoo State" said: As a whole, opportunities will be much greater than the challenges. In 2018, the domestic PCB industry will be half the flames of seawater, because the trend of inward migration of the PCB industry is very obvious, especially the promotion of capital power in these two years, more domestic PCB manufacturers will be listed, under the blessing of funds, will certainly be Expanding production in succession to increase market share. With the continuous release of production capacity and the impact of environmental protection issues, PCB manufacturers will certainly cause a new round of reshuffle, the company's strength determines whether it can survive, so that in 2018 the entire PCB industry still changes, the price of the PCB market will also depend on This wave of production release and the overall situation of the industry.
It is worth emphasizing that under the influence of environmental protection policies, environmental protection will be considered as an important consideration when the newly expanded PCB factory in the inland area begins to be built. Because environmental protection is not up to standard, rectification or shutdown will be an inevitable trend. So, in order to avoid the old path, PCB manufacturers must strengthen the supply chain management, improve the process, pay attention to environmental issues of low pollution, the domestic migration of the PCB industry is not an industrial upgrade.